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MLB SEASON COUNTER: 45.0%

Major League Baseball has now completed 45% of the season through Sunday June 19th. So how do Main Event owners try to ensure that they log a winning season? Well, it is widely understood by the 705 Main Event fantasy managers that you must address the Steals category early and often in your fantasy draft. However, this season it has not proven as difficult to acquire them, so SOME NFBC veterans may have focused too much on speed and are now lagging in the power categories. Not sure who those particular owners might be, but let me just say that – um – well – this week’s article has a particular lesson that I might need to pay attention to…

Your Draft Plan is Not a Code

When you enter the draft room – any draft room – but particularly in the Main Event, you need to stay flexible. Just because you THINK steals will be difficult to roster does not mean you can go too light on home runs, for example (not that I would know anything about that really). This important scene from “Pirates of the Caribbean” illustrates effectively what can happen when you make a few key incorrect assumptions.

ELIZABETH SWAN: WAIT! You have to take me to shore! According to the Code of the Order of…
CAPTAIN BARBOSSA: FIRST, your return to shore was not part of our negotiations or our agreement, so I MUST do nothing! And secondly, you must be a pirate for the pirate’s code to apply and you’re not! And thirdly, the code is more what you call guidelines than actual rules.

Welcome to the Black Pearl, Miss Turner!

In addition, you can find this key advice within the “Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl” Movie which I know helps me when I consider dropping one of my under-performing players:

Maybe it will help you as well?

 

The MLB Environment: Improvement Shown

Through Sunday 6/26, MLB hitters have been scoring just 4.34 runs per game, well below the 4.53 in 2021. Runs per game had been improving from the 4.08 average several weeks ago but have flattened out – although this week is up just one tick from 4.33 to 4.34. This has been built by two main factors (see chart below):

  • Batting average is also up slightly at .242 (well up from .232 in April and slightly down from .244 last year).
  • Home runs also up a notch from 1.05 to 06 this week (from 1.22 in 2021 but up from early season struggles when it was below 1.00).
MLB HITTING STATS RUNS/GAME HOME RUNS BATTING AVERAGE
2022 YTD 4.34 1.06 0.242
2021 4.53 1.22 0.244
2020 4.65 1.28 0.245
2019 4.83 1.39 0.252
2018 4.65 1.15 0.248
2017 4.65 1.26 0.255

As we’ve stated previously, MLB strikeouts have been down and finally rebounded a little this week to 8.33 (from 8.31) per game, and with walks staying steady at 3.13 (from 3.15) per game, MLB WHIP is now also steady at 1.270. Still, strikeouts are at the lowest level since 2017, when it hit 8.25 per game.

MLB PITCHING STATS MLB WHIP STRIKEOUTS RECORDED WALKS ALLOWED K:BB RATIO
2022 YTD 1.27 8.33 3.13 2.66
2021 1.30 8.68 3.25 2.67
2020 1.33 8.68 3.39 2.56
2019 1.33 8.81 3.27 2.69
2018 1.30 8.48 3.32 2.55
2017 1.34 8.25 3.26 2.53

 

Steals: 80% Target 2022 = 131

Just as a Guideline (not as a Code), steals in the Main Event are trending higher than in 2021. In the 2019 Main Event, fantasy owners needed a Win total of 125 to get 80% of the overall points available in this category. In 2021 (skipping 2020 because of the shortened season), that number decreased to 121 (3.2% lower). Thus far in 2022, a Main Event team would require 59 Steals to get 80% of the points available – estimated at 131.1 for the full season, or 8.3% higher than 2021 (and 4.8% higher than 2019).

80% Updates on Categories Already Covered (counting stats adjusted for full season):

Runs: 1027 (462 currently)

Home Runs: 278 (125 currently)

RBIs: 1000 (450)

SB: 131 (59)

Batting Average: .2559

K: 1336 (601)

Wins: 91 (41)

Saves: 76 (34)

ERA: 3.363

WHIP: 1.145

 

 

Watch the Berti 

 

But who are the players providing the most help in steals? In the chart below you can see – through Sunday 6/26 – the top 20 in steals (players with 11 or more steals) along with their ADP. 12 of these known thieves were drafted in the top 100 – and 5 were taken on average in the first 16 selections (Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker, Ronald Acuna, Jr., and Luis Robert) – so they came with a healthy associated cost. However, there were also 3 in the 100-200 range, 2 in the 200-300 range, and 3 huge bargains – star performer Jon Berti (undrafted and only 2 steals before May 27th but now leads the league with 21 stolen bases); Jorge Mateo with 19 steals (ADP 432); and Eli White with 12 (essentially undrafted and is now on the IL). Those three players have certainly catapulted many fantasy owners up the steals standings.

19
STEALS RANK THRU 6/26 PLAYER STEALS MAIN EVENT ADP
1 Jon Berti 21 667
2 tie Julio Rodriguez 19 231
2 tie Jorge Mateo 19 432
4 Tommy Edman 17 92
5 Cedric Mullins 16 36
6 tie Harrison Bader 15 236
6 tie Trea Turner 15 1
8 tie Kyle Tucker 13 12
8 tie Ronald Acuna Jr. 13 13
8 tie Randy Arozarena 13 65
11 tie Marcus Semien 12 39
11 tie Eli White IL 12 749
11 tie Jazz Chisholm 12 80
11 tie Jose Ramirez 12 4
15 tie Luis Robert 11 16
15 tie Dansby Swanson 11 121
15 tie Adolis Garcia 11 171
15 tie Myles Straw 11 138
15 tie Bobby Witt Jr. 11 82
15 tie Christian Yelich 11 99

 

Don’t Rain on My Paredes!

Isaac Paredes, who has shown an unexpected power surge with 5 HR in his last 4 games was the widest pickup on 6/26. Paredes was added in 43 leagues (he was already owned in the other 4 leagues) for as high as $106 and as low as $4.

In addition, 9 other players were picked up in 23 or more leagues (see below). Other wide pickups were Lou Trivino – who just might get his closer gig back; Jake Meyers– back and playing regularly for Houston; Mitch White – who is taking Andrew Heaney’s rotation spot at least for now; and Josh H. Smith – the Ranger infielder who has taken over 3B duties for Ezekiel Duran and batted leadoff Sunday.

ADDED IN MOST MAIN EVENT LEAGUES Leagues Added Reason Highest Winning Bid Lowest Winning Bid
Isaac Paredes 43 Power surge for TB 106 4
Lou Trivino 41 Possibly reinstated? 77 1
Jake Meyers 39 Back and getting PT 315 2
Mitch White 36 Taking Heaney’s spot 107 5
Josh Smith 35 New TEX 3B 75 1
Dean Kremer 34 Two starts for BAL 25 1
Cavan Biggio 32 Back on the upswing? 51 1
Eddie Rosario 25 Beginning rehab 51 1
Bligh Madris 24 9-25 in early going 95 1
Kris Bubic 23 This week: TEX/ DET 13 1

 

The Wow Bid of the Week

One of our highlighted features – the Main Event Wow Bid of the Week – goes to the largest bid of each FAAB period. This week that honor goes to a $315 bid for Houston outfielder Jake Meyers won in 39 leagues – 38 times for $71 or less – but in one league he was won with a massive $315 bid (well above the $32 runner-up amount). The lowest winning bid for Jake Meyers was (a much more affordable) $2.

6/26: Jake Meyers $315

6/19: Riley Greene $361

6/12: Stephen Strasburg $227

6/5: Edward Cabrera $331

5/29 Ryan Helsley $312

5/22: Nolan Gorman $482 – #4 Wow Bid

5/15: George Kirby $557 – #2 Wow Bid

5/8: Brendan Rodgers $424

5/1: Eloy Jimenez $452

4/24: Jesse Winker $508 – #3 Wow Bid

4/17: Matt Manning $475 – #5 Wow Bid

4/10: Josh Lowe $613 – Highest Main Bid this Year

4/3: Matt Brash $244

 

The Century Club Has 9 Members This Week

There were 9 players that attracted SUCCESSFUL bids over $100 during this FAAB run (down from 11 last week), and just 2 of those players had at least one winning bid over $200 (the same as last week – see chart below). The only players attracting multiple bids over $100 were Jarren Duran (6) and Hunter Strickland (2). There were 15 successful bids over $100 (down from 32) and 2 successful bids over $200 (down from 11):

TEAM BIDS OVER $100 – MAIN EVENT Winning Bids over $100 Winning Bids over $200 Highest Winning Bid (FAAB $)
HOU Jake Meyers 1 1 315
BOS Jarren Duran 6 1 222
MIN Jhoan Duran 1 0 188
MIL Tyrone Taylor 1 0 132
CIN Hunter Strickland 2 0 121
CIN Nick Lodolo 1 0 119
LAD Mitch White 1 0 107
TB Isaac Paredes 1 0 106
SEA Paul Sewald 1 0 105
15 2

 

Average Main Event Team FAAB Remaining: $322

For the 13 FAAB runs thus far, the average Main Event team has won 24.8 bids this season (still steady at 1.91 per week) and spent $678.24 per team. This dollar amount is – for the first time this season – actually higher (by just 0.2%) than last year when $677.02 was spent per team in the same time frame. This means that in 2022, the average team has $322 of FAAB left, but it’s worthwhile to remember that approximately $57 per team went unspent last year as fantasy owners fell out of the running. Therefore, the active FAAB dollars left is much less than $322.

2022 TOTAL NUMBER OF MAIN EVENT WINNING BIDS TOTAL FAAB DOLLARS SPENT MAIN EVENT AVERAGE WINNING BID MAIN EVENT AVERAGE AMOUNTS SPENT PER ME TEAM
1 403 $7,962 $19.76 $11.29
2 1035 $36,124 $34.90 $51.24
3 1445 $46,026 $31.85 $65.29
4 1431 $44,112 $30.83 $62.57
5 1367 $37,945 $27.76 $53.82
6 1300 $50,280 $38.68 $71.32
7 1580 $58,965 $37.32 $83.64
8 1527 $46,398 $30.39 $65.81
9 1487 $36,434 $24.50 $51.68
10 1573 $33,085 $21.03 $46.93
11 1573 $29,778 $18.93 $42.24
12 1344 $28,132 $20.93 $39.90
13 1429 $22,918 $16.04 $32.51
TOTAL 17494 $478,159 $27.33 $678.24

 

Colosseum Stats: Four Players from Three Weeks Ago…Results: 3 Good Adds out of 4:

Again this season we’ll be keeping tabs on the 4 most added players from 3 weeks ago to see how some of the biggest free agent acquisitions have been doing for their fantasy owners. These are the players acquired in the most leagues on the 13th FAAB run this season – on 6/26 (stats are from 6/6 through 6/26):

  • Konnor Pilkington: 10.0 IP; 5.40 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; 5 K; 5 BB; 0 WINS – Pilkington was added for what seemed like a nice two-start week, but things went awry and he didn’t pitch well. Now he’s back in Columbus, Ohio and this gladiator gets a sad LOSS.
  • Luis Garcia (WAS): 23-for-75 .307 AVG; 2 HR; 0 SB – Luis has shown a good strong average – and he’s been productive with 9 runs scored and 6 RBI since his call-up – he’s playing regularly and I think this gladiator deserves the WIN!
  • Ross Stripling: 20.2 IP; 1.31 ERA; 0.73 WHIP; 14 K; 3 BB; 3 WINS – an easy WIN for Ross, who has delivered as he has taken over the rotation spot in Toronto.
  • Graham Ashcraft: 23.2 IP; 4.56 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; 18 K; 2 BB; 2 WINS – This one is interesting – he came out of the gate strong with a win, then put up two relative clunkers. Then just as fantasy owners were dumping or benching him he came through with a great performance at San Francisco – I’m a little torn on this one although the overall numbers are good – but for a 15-team league I think we have to give him the WIN.

 

2022 RECORD:

  • 16 thumbs up – 40% (full year 2021 24%)
  • 9 side thumbs – 23% (full year 2021 27%)
  • 15 thumbs down – 38% (full year 2021 49%)

 

The record of top adds in the Main Event is still ahead of 2021 through the first 13 FAAB periods. Main Event owners are consistently finding one good solid add per week thus far – in fact the record is BETTER than one good add per week. Congratulations to us as a group!!!

Interesting Single Team Drops

I took a look at the Main Event transactions to look for any interesting players dropped this week. These are players dropped just once that I found somewhat surprising. It’s interesting that Anthony DeSclfani and Brad Hand were relatively big adds this week but were each dropped by one owner…

6/26: Emilio Pagan, Raimel Tapia; Trevor Bauer (huh?); Oscar Gonzalez; Avisail Garcia; Dylan Bundy; Steven Kwan; Kyle Farmer; Gabriel Moreno

 

Blending Together

Overall Rank Fantasy Owner Overall Points Points Behind
1 Mark Bendar 5921.5 0.0
2 Robert Cramutola 5895.5 26.0
3 Kyle Brinkmann 5878.5 43.0
4 Robert Mirshak & Ian Kahn 5852.5 69.0
5 Bob Catsiroumpas 5845.5 76.0
6 Leonard Ringle 5811.5 110.0
7 Scott Jenstad 5753.5 168.0
8 Ben Tidd 5745.0 176.5
9 Bill Macey 5742.0 179.5
10 Craig Clarke 5721.5 200.0
11 Matt Modica 5638.5 283.0
12 Ned Donohue 5567.0 354.5
13 Charles Sommer 5531.5 390.0
14 Scott Waggener 5503.5 418.0
15 Rob Silver 5481.5 440.0
16 Robert Cramutola 5469.5 452.0
17 Kelly Uganski 5429.5 492.0
18 Zach Bettencourt 5414.0 507.5
19 Chris Fessler 5389.0 532.5
20 Zachary Waxman 5345.0 576.5
Average Top 20 Overall Score 5646.8

Congratulations to Mark Bendar for holding the Number One position – Although Mark was planning on working on an update of the 2010 classic film “The Last Airbender” after suggesting the project to M. Night Shyamalan, he says he’s now been convinced by his buddy David Beckham to work on a sequel to “Bend it Like Beckham.” Apparently, the plot involves Mark and David working on setting up a new blender in David’s home when suddenly Posh Spice comes in and…well anyway, as you’d expect it’s called “Blend it Like Beckham.” Sounds um, really cool Mark!

Congratulations also to Robert Cramutola; Kyle Brinkmann, the tag team of Robert Mirshak and Ian Kahn, and Bob Catsiroumpas, who currently occupy the 2nd through 5th positions overall. Wait – how are Bobs in THREE of the top FIVE overall positions? We’ll have to further study this. In any case, congratulations to all of these Top 20 owners – they have certainly bobbed up to the top…

Philippe Dussault: Surges to 50th from 73rd

The world breathed a little easier as Philippe Dussault – who had dropped to 73rd place overall last week – started his patented move up the standings (how did he patent that, anyway?). He has discovered what provided the magic last season, and says late June is the time to “get serious.” He provided the image below – through Rob DiPietro, his new spokesperson, to show his many fans that he is back.

Where are our 2022 Previous Overall Leaders?

Tim Lilly (4/11): Tim WAS moving up, but now dropped to 366th from 258th. Crestfallen, our flower aficionado says that the 75-foot extension cord allowing him to work on his computer from his garden of lilies broke during “an unfortunate incident” after a pitcher he started gave up 9 earned runs.

Scott Fleming (4/18): Still doing very well, Scott nevertheless fell back a little to 68th from 44th this week. Scott claims the move to Flemington, New Jersey has distracted him – as he met with the mayor to tell him he deserved the key to the city. He was quoted as saying in the meeting that it “has nothing to do with the town name,” but that he nevertheless deserves the honor.

Chris Read (4/25-5/8): Chris had an impressive three-week run at the top, dropped to 63rd place four weeks ago – but then surged back to 47th then 42nd then 33rd before falling back to 44th this week. Chris completed his presentation to the Reading Chamber of Commerce and is now planning to travel to Readfield, Maine.

Tyler Jung (5/15): Tyler is in 35th place down from 21st place, which is still the best player that is on a “Welcome to the Jungle” tour in deepest, darkest Africa. The problem apparently arose after departing the Munda Wanga Environmental Park, because he decided to visit Maputo in Mozambique “for a little vacation.” That unfortunately was not the recipe to move up in the standings.
Leonard Ringle (5/22-29): Leonard hung out a shingle on the #1 overall position, but was forced to take it down. He dropped a little from 7th place to 16th, but surged back to 11th and now is in 6th – in fact, he said that he was only left out of the top five on a technicality – that there was a preference for Bobs to be included. He has asked for an umpire review of the matter.

Bob Catsiroumpas (6/13): One of our lead Bobs is not only in 5th but has invited Robert Crumutola and Robert Mirshak to join him in Bozeman to train with the Montana State Bobcats. He was heard to exclaim: “We need to show the world that Bobs rule!”

League of Legends

In addition, we’ll follow the individual league races this season. It is no small feat to win a league championship in the Main Event regardless of a fantasy owner’s overall place, and the top three in each league earn a cash prize and deserve recognition. You can see the 47 leagues listed in the chart below – along with the top three in the standings as of Monday morning.

NFBC League Number LEADER League Points 2nd PLACE League Points 3rd PLACE League Points
#934 Doug Moe 109.0 Jason Anthony 108.5 Daniel Semsel 107.0
#935 Mark Srebro 109.0 Anthony Botzo 103.5 Scott Waggener 94.5
#943 Steven Weimer 121.5 Eno Sarris 105.5 Andrew Kopicz 103.5
#1026 Toby Guevin 113.0 John Pausma 111.0 Matthew Davis 96.5
#1027 Scott Jenstad 103.5 Tanner Bell 101.0 Justin Salinger 100.5
#1028 Russel Wyatt 110.5 Jacob Halusker 110.0 Ryan Atkins 109.0
#1029 Mark Northan 107.0 Rusty Clark 102.5 Scott Waggener 93.5
#1030 Rob Silver 119.5 Zach Bettencourt 100.0 Clark Olson 91.0
#1031 Stephen Marshall 104.0 Daniel Prepas 103.5 Scott Fleming 102.5
#1032 Mark Bendar 129.0 Tony DiVincenzo 107.5 Shawn Childs 104.0
#1034 Ned Donohue 123.5 Robert Cramutola 121.5 Stephen Jupinka 106.0
#1132 Scott Masel 103.5 Eric Heberlig 102.0 Jin Chun 98.0
#1143 James Anderson & Todd Whitestone 114.0 Michelle Smith 111.0 Mark Srebro 106.0
#1192 Robert Cramutola 130.0 Steven Weimer 111.5 Christopher Vaccaro 107.5
#1221 Eric Albright 109.0 Michael Crescenzi 108.0 Bradley Libros 104.0
#1226 Robert DiPietro 106.0 Michael Garcia 104.0 Patrick Longood 101.5
#1228 Charles Sommer 127.0 TIE: John Pausma 104.0 TIE: Mike Ballschmiede 104.0
#1233 Ned Donohue 119.0 Gregg Martin 102.5 TIE: Stephen Jupinka & Jon Stadtmueller 98.5
#1236 Daniel Prepas 113.5 Clark Olson 102.5 Michael O’Brien 99.0
#1244 Douglas Gruber 116.0 Jordan Epping 105.5 Andrew Geller 101.0
#1260 Kelly Uganski 117.5 Jeff Erickson 106.5 Vince Clemente 101.0
#1263 Kyle Brinkmann 132.0 Michael Brophy 118.5 Chris Uram 108.0
#1264 Bill Macey 129.5 Vlad Sedler 113.5 Brian Edwards 103.0
#1265 Tyler Jung 116.0 Bob Mazur 107.5 Aaron Jones 106.0
#1287 James Gabal 113.0 Glenn Schroter 110.5 Aaron Lawson 106.5
#1292 Matt Modica 120.0 Mike Rothe 113.5 Steven Heffernan 108.0
#1294 Scott Waggener 127.5 Toby Guevin 107.0 Dohn Terrell 100.5
#1297 Zach Bettencourt 117.0 Richard Briskin 112.0 Kevin Kirves 107.5
#1304 Richard Dimondo 103.0 Patrick Raney 100.5 Philippe Dussault 99.0
#1306 David Miller 104.5 Dave Petroziello 98.0 Michael Thompson 96.0
#1318 Douglas Gruber 117.5 Jody Ryan 106.5 Emmett Ruland 92.0
#1319 Jeff Mitseff 105.5 Bob Casale 103.5 Aaron German 101.5
#1320 Robert Mirshak & Ian Kahn 127.5 Philippe Dussault 108.0 Michael Fuchs 100.5
#1321 Chris Fessler 116.0 Mike Rothe 109.0 Kyle Brinkmann 104.0
#1322 Kellen Arneson 113.5 Ned Donohue 112.0 Jeff Mitseff 104.0
#1331 Bob Catsiroumpas 125.0 Robert DiPietro 115.0 Bradley Libros 112.0
#1332 Leonard Ringle 126.5 Ben Tidd 121.5 Chris Read 110.0
#1363 Matthew McDonough 112.0 Kevin Grady 100.5 Paul Hong 98.0
#1364 Al Williams 113.0 James Tomony 106.5 Stephen Jupinka 105.0
#1365 Scott Jenstad 125.0 Craig Clarke 121.0 Matt Hurley 111.5
#1366 Chris Boudreaux 109.5 Isaac Cockburn 105.5 Jeff Mitseff 105.0
#1371 John Pausma 111.5 Jason Santeiu 111.0 Brian Slack 108.0
#1402 Ray Butler 113.5 John Lyons 108.5 Abdulaziz Madani 103.5
#1405 Zachary Waxman 114.5 Michael Lins 114.0 Christopher Torres 101.5
#1408 Eric Heberlig 107.0 Jody Ryan 102.5 Les Travis 101.5
#1511 Ian Hubbard 109.5 Scott Fleming 107.0 Beau Reid 96.5
#1524 Jamie Ickes 112.0 Scott Waggener 105.5 Mark Srebro 102.0
Average 1st Place Score 115.5 Average 2nd Place Score 107.9 Average 3rd Place Score 102.5

 

There are multiple NFBC players who are in the top three places in more than one Main Event league. Even at this early stage, that is impressive. Shout-outs:

  • Ned Donohue – two 1st one 2nd and 12th overall – Gee, Ned, only two 1st this week?
  • Podcaster for Rotowire and doing a great job – Scott Jenstad (two 1st and 7th overall)
  • Robert Cramutola (one 1st and one 2nd) plus 2nd and 16th overall
  • Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer (and 2018 Main Event Champ) John Pausma – one 1st two 2nd and 45th overall
  • Scott Waggener (one 1st and one 2nd and two 3rd and 14th overall)
  • Kyle Brinkmann (one 1st one 3rd and 3rd overall)
  • Avid standings watcher Mark Srebro – two 1st, one 3rd
  • The dominator Douglas Gruber – two 1st; and 21st/28th overall
  • Jeff Mitseff (one 1st and two 3rd) and 54th overall
  • My podcast partner Robert DiPietro, one 1st and one 2nd and 27th overall
  • 2016 Main Event Champ Rob Silver – 1st in his league, 15th overall, and first in Canada’s hearts (maybe after Phil Dussault?)
  • Clark Olson (one 2nd and one 3rd)
  • ONE 1st ONE 2nd: Daniel Prepas; Toby Guevin; Zach Bettencourt; Steve Weimer; Eric Heberlig
  • Stephen Jupinka (THREE 3rd)
  • Matty Modica (one 1st and 11th overall)
  • TWO 2nd – Mike Rothe; Jody Ryan
  • AND Philippe Dussault (one 2nd and one 3rd)

Great job by all!

Good luck to all fantasy baseball owners this week and as Captain Jack Sparrow said: Well, I think we’ve all arrived at a very special place, eh? Spiritually. Ecumenically. Gramatically.

Todd Whitestone

Todd Whitestone

Writer for SPstreamer.com focusing on the NFBC Main Event

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