MLB SEASON COUNTER: 45.0%
Major League Baseball has now completed 45% of the season through Sunday June 19th. So how do Main Event owners try to ensure that they log a winning season? Well, it is widely understood by the 705 Main Event fantasy managers that you must address the Steals category early and often in your fantasy draft. However, this season it has not proven as difficult to acquire them, so SOME NFBC veterans may have focused too much on speed and are now lagging in the power categories. Not sure who those particular owners might be, but let me just say that – um – well – this week’s article has a particular lesson that I might need to pay attention to…
Your Draft Plan is Not a Code
When you enter the draft room – any draft room – but particularly in the Main Event, you need to stay flexible. Just because you THINK steals will be difficult to roster does not mean you can go too light on home runs, for example (not that I would know anything about that really). This important scene from “Pirates of the Caribbean” illustrates effectively what can happen when you make a few key incorrect assumptions.
ELIZABETH SWAN: WAIT! You have to take me to shore! According to the Code of the Order of…
CAPTAIN BARBOSSA: FIRST, your return to shore was not part of our negotiations or our agreement, so I MUST do nothing! And secondly, you must be a pirate for the pirate’s code to apply and you’re not! And thirdly, the code is more what you call guidelines than actual rules.
Welcome to the Black Pearl, Miss Turner!
In addition, you can find this key advice within the “Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl” Movie which I know helps me when I consider dropping one of my under-performing players:
Maybe it will help you as well?
The MLB Environment: Improvement Shown
Through Sunday 6/26, MLB hitters have been scoring just 4.34 runs per game, well below the 4.53 in 2021. Runs per game had been improving from the 4.08 average several weeks ago but have flattened out – although this week is up just one tick from 4.33 to 4.34. This has been built by two main factors (see chart below):
- Batting average is also up slightly at .242 (well up from .232 in April and slightly down from .244 last year).
- Home runs also up a notch from 1.05 to 06 this week (from 1.22 in 2021 but up from early season struggles when it was below 1.00).
|MLB HITTING STATS||RUNS/GAME||HOME RUNS||BATTING AVERAGE|
As we’ve stated previously, MLB strikeouts have been down and finally rebounded a little this week to 8.33 (from 8.31) per game, and with walks staying steady at 3.13 (from 3.15) per game, MLB WHIP is now also steady at 1.270. Still, strikeouts are at the lowest level since 2017, when it hit 8.25 per game.
|MLB PITCHING STATS||MLB WHIP||STRIKEOUTS RECORDED||WALKS ALLOWED||K:BB RATIO|
Steals: 80% Target 2022 = 131
Just as a Guideline (not as a Code), steals in the Main Event are trending higher than in 2021. In the 2019 Main Event, fantasy owners needed a Win total of 125 to get 80% of the overall points available in this category. In 2021 (skipping 2020 because of the shortened season), that number decreased to 121 (3.2% lower). Thus far in 2022, a Main Event team would require 59 Steals to get 80% of the points available – estimated at 131.1 for the full season, or 8.3% higher than 2021 (and 4.8% higher than 2019).
80% Updates on Categories Already Covered (counting stats adjusted for full season):
Runs: 1027 (462 currently)
Home Runs: 278 (125 currently)
RBIs: 1000 (450)
SB: 131 (59)
Batting Average: .2559
K: 1336 (601)
Wins: 91 (41)
Saves: 76 (34)
Watch the Berti
But who are the players providing the most help in steals? In the chart below you can see – through Sunday 6/26 – the top 20 in steals (players with 11 or more steals) along with their ADP. 12 of these known thieves were drafted in the top 100 – and 5 were taken on average in the first 16 selections (Trea Turner, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker, Ronald Acuna, Jr., and Luis Robert) – so they came with a healthy associated cost. However, there were also 3 in the 100-200 range, 2 in the 200-300 range, and 3 huge bargains – star performer Jon Berti (undrafted and only 2 steals before May 27th but now leads the league with 21 stolen bases); Jorge Mateo with 19 steals (ADP 432); and Eli White with 12 (essentially undrafted and is now on the IL). Those three players have certainly catapulted many fantasy owners up the steals standings.
|STEALS RANK THRU 6/26||PLAYER||STEALS||MAIN EVENT ADP|
|2 tie||Julio Rodriguez||19||231|
|2 tie||Jorge Mateo||19||432|
|6 tie||Harrison Bader||15||236|
|6 tie||Trea Turner||15||1|
|8 tie||Kyle Tucker||13||12|
|8 tie||Ronald Acuna Jr.||13||13|
|8 tie||Randy Arozarena||13||65|
|11 tie||Marcus Semien||12||39|
|11 tie||Eli White IL||12||749|
|11 tie||Jazz Chisholm||12||80|
|11 tie||Jose Ramirez||12||4|
|15 tie||Luis Robert||11||16|
|15 tie||Dansby Swanson||11||121|
|15 tie||Adolis Garcia||11||171|
|15 tie||Myles Straw||11||138|
|15 tie||Bobby Witt Jr.||11||82|
|15 tie||Christian Yelich||11||99|
Don’t Rain on My Paredes!
Isaac Paredes, who has shown an unexpected power surge with 5 HR in his last 4 games was the widest pickup on 6/26. Paredes was added in 43 leagues (he was already owned in the other 4 leagues) for as high as $106 and as low as $4.
In addition, 9 other players were picked up in 23 or more leagues (see below). Other wide pickups were Lou Trivino – who just might get his closer gig back; Jake Meyers– back and playing regularly for Houston; Mitch White – who is taking Andrew Heaney’s rotation spot at least for now; and Josh H. Smith – the Ranger infielder who has taken over 3B duties for Ezekiel Duran and batted leadoff Sunday.
|ADDED IN MOST MAIN EVENT LEAGUES||Leagues Added||Reason||Highest Winning Bid||Lowest Winning Bid|
|Isaac Paredes||43||Power surge for TB||106||4|
|Lou Trivino||41||Possibly reinstated?||77||1|
|Jake Meyers||39||Back and getting PT||315||2|
|Mitch White||36||Taking Heaney’s spot||107||5|
|Josh Smith||35||New TEX 3B||75||1|
|Dean Kremer||34||Two starts for BAL||25||1|
|Cavan Biggio||32||Back on the upswing?||51||1|
|Eddie Rosario||25||Beginning rehab||51||1|
|Bligh Madris||24||9-25 in early going||95||1|
|Kris Bubic||23||This week: TEX/ DET||13||1|
The Wow Bid of the Week
One of our highlighted features – the Main Event Wow Bid of the Week – goes to the largest bid of each FAAB period. This week that honor goes to a $315 bid for Houston outfielder Jake Meyers won in 39 leagues – 38 times for $71 or less – but in one league he was won with a massive $315 bid (well above the $32 runner-up amount). The lowest winning bid for Jake Meyers was (a much more affordable) $2.
6/26: Jake Meyers $315
6/19: Riley Greene $361
6/12: Stephen Strasburg $227
6/5: Edward Cabrera $331
5/29 Ryan Helsley $312
5/22: Nolan Gorman $482 – #4 Wow Bid
5/15: George Kirby $557 – #2 Wow Bid
5/8: Brendan Rodgers $424
5/1: Eloy Jimenez $452
4/24: Jesse Winker $508 – #3 Wow Bid
4/17: Matt Manning $475 – #5 Wow Bid
4/10: Josh Lowe $613 – Highest Main Bid this Year
4/3: Matt Brash $244
The Century Club Has 9 Members This Week
There were 9 players that attracted SUCCESSFUL bids over $100 during this FAAB run (down from 11 last week), and just 2 of those players had at least one winning bid over $200 (the same as last week – see chart below). The only players attracting multiple bids over $100 were Jarren Duran (6) and Hunter Strickland (2). There were 15 successful bids over $100 (down from 32) and 2 successful bids over $200 (down from 11):
|TEAM||BIDS OVER $100 – MAIN EVENT||Winning Bids over $100||Winning Bids over $200||Highest Winning Bid (FAAB $)|
Average Main Event Team FAAB Remaining: $322
For the 13 FAAB runs thus far, the average Main Event team has won 24.8 bids this season (still steady at 1.91 per week) and spent $678.24 per team. This dollar amount is – for the first time this season – actually higher (by just 0.2%) than last year when $677.02 was spent per team in the same time frame. This means that in 2022, the average team has $322 of FAAB left, but it’s worthwhile to remember that approximately $57 per team went unspent last year as fantasy owners fell out of the running. Therefore, the active FAAB dollars left is much less than $322.
|2022||TOTAL NUMBER OF MAIN EVENT WINNING BIDS||TOTAL FAAB DOLLARS SPENT MAIN EVENT||AVERAGE WINNING BID MAIN EVENT||AVERAGE AMOUNTS SPENT PER ME TEAM|
Colosseum Stats: Four Players from Three Weeks Ago…Results: 3 Good Adds out of 4:
Again this season we’ll be keeping tabs on the 4 most added players from 3 weeks ago to see how some of the biggest free agent acquisitions have been doing for their fantasy owners. These are the players acquired in the most leagues on the 13th FAAB run this season – on 6/26 (stats are from 6/6 through 6/26):
- Konnor Pilkington: 10.0 IP; 5.40 ERA; 1.50 WHIP; 5 K; 5 BB; 0 WINS – Pilkington was added for what seemed like a nice two-start week, but things went awry and he didn’t pitch well. Now he’s back in Columbus, Ohio and this gladiator gets a sad LOSS.
- Luis Garcia (WAS): 23-for-75 .307 AVG; 2 HR; 0 SB – Luis has shown a good strong average – and he’s been productive with 9 runs scored and 6 RBI since his call-up – he’s playing regularly and I think this gladiator deserves the WIN!
- Ross Stripling: 20.2 IP; 1.31 ERA; 0.73 WHIP; 14 K; 3 BB; 3 WINS – an easy WIN for Ross, who has delivered as he has taken over the rotation spot in Toronto.
- Graham Ashcraft: 23.2 IP; 4.56 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; 18 K; 2 BB; 2 WINS – This one is interesting – he came out of the gate strong with a win, then put up two relative clunkers. Then just as fantasy owners were dumping or benching him he came through with a great performance at San Francisco – I’m a little torn on this one although the overall numbers are good – but for a 15-team league I think we have to give him the WIN.
- 16 thumbs up – 40% (full year 2021 24%)
- 9 side thumbs – 23% (full year 2021 27%)
- 15 thumbs down – 38% (full year 2021 49%)
The record of top adds in the Main Event is still ahead of 2021 through the first 13 FAAB periods. Main Event owners are consistently finding one good solid add per week thus far – in fact the record is BETTER than one good add per week. Congratulations to us as a group!!!
Interesting Single Team Drops
I took a look at the Main Event transactions to look for any interesting players dropped this week. These are players dropped just once that I found somewhat surprising. It’s interesting that Anthony DeSclfani and Brad Hand were relatively big adds this week but were each dropped by one owner…
6/26: Emilio Pagan, Raimel Tapia; Trevor Bauer (huh?); Oscar Gonzalez; Avisail Garcia; Dylan Bundy; Steven Kwan; Kyle Farmer; Gabriel Moreno
|Overall Rank||Fantasy Owner||Overall Points||Points Behind|
|4||Robert Mirshak & Ian Kahn||5852.5||69.0|
|Average Top 20 Overall Score||5646.8|
Congratulations to Mark Bendar for holding the Number One position – Although Mark was planning on working on an update of the 2010 classic film “The Last Airbender” after suggesting the project to M. Night Shyamalan, he says he’s now been convinced by his buddy David Beckham to work on a sequel to “Bend it Like Beckham.” Apparently, the plot involves Mark and David working on setting up a new blender in David’s home when suddenly Posh Spice comes in and…well anyway, as you’d expect it’s called “Blend it Like Beckham.” Sounds um, really cool Mark!
Congratulations also to Robert Cramutola; Kyle Brinkmann, the tag team of Robert Mirshak and Ian Kahn, and Bob Catsiroumpas, who currently occupy the 2nd through 5th positions overall. Wait – how are Bobs in THREE of the top FIVE overall positions? We’ll have to further study this. In any case, congratulations to all of these Top 20 owners – they have certainly bobbed up to the top…
Philippe Dussault: Surges to 50th from 73rd
The world breathed a little easier as Philippe Dussault – who had dropped to 73rd place overall last week – started his patented move up the standings (how did he patent that, anyway?). He has discovered what provided the magic last season, and says late June is the time to “get serious.” He provided the image below – through Rob DiPietro, his new spokesperson, to show his many fans that he is back.
Where are our 2022 Previous Overall Leaders?
Tim Lilly (4/11): Tim WAS moving up, but now dropped to 366th from 258th. Crestfallen, our flower aficionado says that the 75-foot extension cord allowing him to work on his computer from his garden of lilies broke during “an unfortunate incident” after a pitcher he started gave up 9 earned runs.
Scott Fleming (4/18): Still doing very well, Scott nevertheless fell back a little to 68th from 44th this week. Scott claims the move to Flemington, New Jersey has distracted him – as he met with the mayor to tell him he deserved the key to the city. He was quoted as saying in the meeting that it “has nothing to do with the town name,” but that he nevertheless deserves the honor.
Chris Read (4/25-5/8): Chris had an impressive three-week run at the top, dropped to 63rd place four weeks ago – but then surged back to 47th then 42nd then 33rd before falling back to 44th this week. Chris completed his presentation to the Reading Chamber of Commerce and is now planning to travel to Readfield, Maine.
Tyler Jung (5/15): Tyler is in 35th place down from 21st place, which is still the best player that is on a “Welcome to the Jungle” tour in deepest, darkest Africa. The problem apparently arose after departing the Munda Wanga Environmental Park, because he decided to visit Maputo in Mozambique “for a little vacation.” That unfortunately was not the recipe to move up in the standings.
Leonard Ringle (5/22-29): Leonard hung out a shingle on the #1 overall position, but was forced to take it down. He dropped a little from 7th place to 16th, but surged back to 11th and now is in 6th – in fact, he said that he was only left out of the top five on a technicality – that there was a preference for Bobs to be included. He has asked for an umpire review of the matter.
Bob Catsiroumpas (6/13): One of our lead Bobs is not only in 5th but has invited Robert Crumutola and Robert Mirshak to join him in Bozeman to train with the Montana State Bobcats. He was heard to exclaim: “We need to show the world that Bobs rule!”
League of Legends
In addition, we’ll follow the individual league races this season. It is no small feat to win a league championship in the Main Event regardless of a fantasy owner’s overall place, and the top three in each league earn a cash prize and deserve recognition. You can see the 47 leagues listed in the chart below – along with the top three in the standings as of Monday morning.
|NFBC League Number||LEADER||League Points||2nd PLACE||League Points||3rd PLACE||League Points|
|#934||Doug Moe||109.0||Jason Anthony||108.5||Daniel Semsel||107.0|
|#935||Mark Srebro||109.0||Anthony Botzo||103.5||Scott Waggener||94.5|
|#943||Steven Weimer||121.5||Eno Sarris||105.5||Andrew Kopicz||103.5|
|#1026||Toby Guevin||113.0||John Pausma||111.0||Matthew Davis||96.5|
|#1027||Scott Jenstad||103.5||Tanner Bell||101.0||Justin Salinger||100.5|
|#1028||Russel Wyatt||110.5||Jacob Halusker||110.0||Ryan Atkins||109.0|
|#1029||Mark Northan||107.0||Rusty Clark||102.5||Scott Waggener||93.5|
|#1030||Rob Silver||119.5||Zach Bettencourt||100.0||Clark Olson||91.0|
|#1031||Stephen Marshall||104.0||Daniel Prepas||103.5||Scott Fleming||102.5|
|#1032||Mark Bendar||129.0||Tony DiVincenzo||107.5||Shawn Childs||104.0|
|#1034||Ned Donohue||123.5||Robert Cramutola||121.5||Stephen Jupinka||106.0|
|#1132||Scott Masel||103.5||Eric Heberlig||102.0||Jin Chun||98.0|
|#1143||James Anderson & Todd Whitestone||114.0||Michelle Smith||111.0||Mark Srebro||106.0|
|#1192||Robert Cramutola||130.0||Steven Weimer||111.5||Christopher Vaccaro||107.5|
|#1221||Eric Albright||109.0||Michael Crescenzi||108.0||Bradley Libros||104.0|
|#1226||Robert DiPietro||106.0||Michael Garcia||104.0||Patrick Longood||101.5|
|#1228||Charles Sommer||127.0||TIE: John Pausma||104.0||TIE: Mike Ballschmiede||104.0|
|#1233||Ned Donohue||119.0||Gregg Martin||102.5||TIE: Stephen Jupinka & Jon Stadtmueller||98.5|
|#1236||Daniel Prepas||113.5||Clark Olson||102.5||Michael O’Brien||99.0|
|#1244||Douglas Gruber||116.0||Jordan Epping||105.5||Andrew Geller||101.0|
|#1260||Kelly Uganski||117.5||Jeff Erickson||106.5||Vince Clemente||101.0|
|#1263||Kyle Brinkmann||132.0||Michael Brophy||118.5||Chris Uram||108.0|
|#1264||Bill Macey||129.5||Vlad Sedler||113.5||Brian Edwards||103.0|
|#1265||Tyler Jung||116.0||Bob Mazur||107.5||Aaron Jones||106.0|
|#1287||James Gabal||113.0||Glenn Schroter||110.5||Aaron Lawson||106.5|
|#1292||Matt Modica||120.0||Mike Rothe||113.5||Steven Heffernan||108.0|
|#1294||Scott Waggener||127.5||Toby Guevin||107.0||Dohn Terrell||100.5|
|#1297||Zach Bettencourt||117.0||Richard Briskin||112.0||Kevin Kirves||107.5|
|#1304||Richard Dimondo||103.0||Patrick Raney||100.5||Philippe Dussault||99.0|
|#1306||David Miller||104.5||Dave Petroziello||98.0||Michael Thompson||96.0|
|#1318||Douglas Gruber||117.5||Jody Ryan||106.5||Emmett Ruland||92.0|
|#1319||Jeff Mitseff||105.5||Bob Casale||103.5||Aaron German||101.5|
|#1320||Robert Mirshak & Ian Kahn||127.5||Philippe Dussault||108.0||Michael Fuchs||100.5|
|#1321||Chris Fessler||116.0||Mike Rothe||109.0||Kyle Brinkmann||104.0|
|#1322||Kellen Arneson||113.5||Ned Donohue||112.0||Jeff Mitseff||104.0|
|#1331||Bob Catsiroumpas||125.0||Robert DiPietro||115.0||Bradley Libros||112.0|
|#1332||Leonard Ringle||126.5||Ben Tidd||121.5||Chris Read||110.0|
|#1363||Matthew McDonough||112.0||Kevin Grady||100.5||Paul Hong||98.0|
|#1364||Al Williams||113.0||James Tomony||106.5||Stephen Jupinka||105.0|
|#1365||Scott Jenstad||125.0||Craig Clarke||121.0||Matt Hurley||111.5|
|#1366||Chris Boudreaux||109.5||Isaac Cockburn||105.5||Jeff Mitseff||105.0|
|#1371||John Pausma||111.5||Jason Santeiu||111.0||Brian Slack||108.0|
|#1402||Ray Butler||113.5||John Lyons||108.5||Abdulaziz Madani||103.5|
|#1405||Zachary Waxman||114.5||Michael Lins||114.0||Christopher Torres||101.5|
|#1408||Eric Heberlig||107.0||Jody Ryan||102.5||Les Travis||101.5|
|#1511||Ian Hubbard||109.5||Scott Fleming||107.0||Beau Reid||96.5|
|#1524||Jamie Ickes||112.0||Scott Waggener||105.5||Mark Srebro||102.0|
|Average 1st Place Score||115.5||Average 2nd Place Score||107.9||Average 3rd Place Score||102.5|
There are multiple NFBC players who are in the top three places in more than one Main Event league. Even at this early stage, that is impressive. Shout-outs:
- Ned Donohue – two 1st one 2nd and 12th overall – Gee, Ned, only two 1st this week?
- Podcaster for Rotowire and doing a great job – Scott Jenstad (two 1st and 7th overall)
- Robert Cramutola (one 1st and one 2nd) plus 2nd and 16th overall
- Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer (and 2018 Main Event Champ) John Pausma – one 1st two 2nd and 45th overall
- Scott Waggener (one 1st and one 2nd and two 3rd and 14th overall)
- Kyle Brinkmann (one 1st one 3rd and 3rd overall)
- Avid standings watcher Mark Srebro – two 1st, one 3rd
- The dominator Douglas Gruber – two 1st; and 21st/28th overall
- Jeff Mitseff (one 1st and two 3rd) and 54th overall
- My podcast partner Robert DiPietro, one 1st and one 2nd and 27th overall
- 2016 Main Event Champ Rob Silver – 1st in his league, 15th overall, and first in Canada’s hearts (maybe after Phil Dussault?)
- Clark Olson (one 2nd and one 3rd)
- ONE 1st ONE 2nd: Daniel Prepas; Toby Guevin; Zach Bettencourt; Steve Weimer; Eric Heberlig
- Stephen Jupinka (THREE 3rd)
- Matty Modica (one 1st and 11th overall)
- TWO 2nd – Mike Rothe; Jody Ryan
- AND Philippe Dussault (one 2nd and one 3rd)
Great job by all!
Good luck to all fantasy baseball owners this week and as Captain Jack Sparrow said: Well, I think we’ve all arrived at a very special place, eh? Spiritually. Ecumenically. Gramatically.