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MLB SEASON COUNTER: 41.1%

Major League Baseball has now completed 41% of the season through Sunday June 19th. Main Event owners try to ensure that they log a WINNING season, by (of course) focusing on WINS! Since it is widely understood by the 705 Main Event fantasy managers that the Wins category is tough to nail down, veteran NFBC players have learned from a certain Space Ranger how to maintain the correct approach.

First Identify the Problem

To those of you who DON’T play in the Main Event, you may not know this, but when you’re faced with a big problem, the first thing you need to do is identify it in a highly realistic manner. For example, Buzz Lightyear does this in a key scene in Toy Story.

BUZZ: Right now, poised at the edge of the galaxy, Emperor Zurg has been secretly building a weapon with the destructive capacity to annihilate an entire planet. I alone have information that reveals this weapon’s only weakness. (Pointing at Woody) And you, my friend, are responsible for delaying my rendezvous with Star Command.

WOODY EXPLODES

WOODY: YOU ARE A TOY!!! You aren’t the real Buzz Lightyear, you’re an action figure!! YOU ARE A CHILD’S PLAYTHING!!!

PAUSE – – – –  – THEN BUZZ RESPONDS:

 

Communicate Your Honest Observations From Your Fantasy Draft

Once you know that you are the smartest guy in the room – call in to Star Command to communicate this message…

 BUZZ: Buzz Lightyear Mission Log. Stardate 4072: My ship has run off course en route to sector 12. I’ve crash landed on a strange planet. The impact must have awoken me from hyper-sleep.

 BUZZ SPRINGS UP AND DOWN ON THE SQUISHY SURFACE OF THE BED

 BUZZ: (into communicator) Terrain seems a bit unstable…

 HE TAPS THE STICKER OF CONTROLS ON HIS WRIST COMMUNICATOR

 BUZZ: (into communicator) No read-out yet if the air is breathable… and my assessment of my fantasy league-mates is that – – –

 

And When You Finally Get 10 Wins in a Week…

And then finally once your team responds – you must repeat the magic words…

To WIN-finity and Beyond!!

The MLB Environment: Improvement Shown

Through Sunday 6/19, MLB hitters have been scoring just 4.33 runs per game, well below the 4.53 in 2021. Runs per game had been improving from the 4.08 average several weeks ago but this week is at the same exact number. This has been built by two main factors (see chart below):

  • Batting average is also steady from last week at .241 (although at least it has risen from .232 in April, it is still slightly down from .244 last year).
  • Home runs remained at 05 this week (from 1.22 in 2021 but up from early-season struggles when it was below 1.00).
MLB HITTING STATS RUNS/GAME HOME RUNS BATTING AVERAGE
2022 YTD 4.33 1.05 0.241
2021 4.53 1.22 0.244
2020 4.65 1.28 0.245
2019 4.83 1.39 0.252
2018 4.65 1.15 0.248
2017 4.65 1.26 0.255

As we’ve stated previously, MLB strikeouts have been down and declined a little bit more again this week to 8.31 (from 8.32) per game, and with walks also declining level to 3.13 (from 3.15) per game, MLB WHIP is now very slightly lower at 1.269 from 1.271 last week. If this keeps up, batters will strike out fewer times than even 2017, when it hit 8.25 per game.

MLB HITTING STATS RUNS/GAME HOME RUNS BATTING AVERAGE
2022 YTD 4.33 1.05 0.241
2021 4.53 1.22 0.244
2020 4.65 1.28 0.245
2019 4.83 1.39 0.252
2018 4.65 1.15 0.248
2017 4.65 1.26 0.255

 

Wins: 80% Target 2022 = 92.4

Even if you are NOT at Infinity or Beyond, wins are a key stat in rotisserie baseball. Wins in the Main Event are trending a little HIGHER/LOWER than in 2021. In the 2019 Main Event, fantasy owners needed a Win total of 94 to get 80% of the overall points available in this category. In 2021 (skipping 2020 because of the shortened season), that number decreased to 89 (about 5.3% lower). Thus far in 2022, a Main Event team would require 38 Wins to get 80% of the points available – estimated at 92.4 for the full season, or 3.8% higher than 2021 (but 1.7% lower than 2019).

80% Updates on Categories Already Covered (counting stats adjusted for full season):

Runs: 1024 (421 currently)

Home Runs: 275 (113 currently)

RBIs: 1000 (411)

SB: Not Covered Yet

Batting Average: .2556

K: 1321 (543)

Wins: 92 (38)

Saves: 75 (31)

ERA: 3.329

WHIP: 1.140

 

The Magnificent Seven

But who are the pitchers that are providing the most help in Wins? In the chart below you can see – through Saturday 6/18 – the top 13 in wins (pitchers with 7 or 8 victories) along with their ADP. Three of the “Magnificent Seven” pitchers with 8 wins were drafted in the top 100 – Justin Verlander, Joe Musgrove, and Alek Manoah, but all AFTER the top four rounds – so they came at something of a value. However, they were not nearly the bargains as the next four – Tony Gonsolin (ADP 301); Carlos Carrasco (286); Tyler Anderson (essentially undrafted at 601); and Jameson Taillon (299). All seven have proven to be excellent selections through mid-June.

The six pitchers with 7 wins are also largely surprising – Max Fried has the lowest ADP of any pitcher with 7+ victories at 71, but even he was drafted in round 5. They are joined by Logan Gilbert (153); Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan (109) and Framber Valdez (143), who were at least drafted in rounds 8-10. But the surprising names to me are Kyle Wright (undrafted at 670) and Adam Cimber (undrafted and still largely not even owned at 749).

In fairness, wins are a highly unpredictable stat and there are a lot of familiar names with 6 wins (Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Sandy Alcantara, Logan Webb, Yu Darvish, Zack Wheeler and Robbie Ray to name just a few). But to date the top pitchers have not provided the most victories for fantasy owners this year.

WINS RANK THRU 6/18 PLAYER WINS MAIN EVENT ADP
1 through 7 Justin Verlander 8 92
1 through 7 Joe Musgrove 8 73
1 through 7 Alek Manoah 8 94
1 through 7 Tony Gonsolin 8 301
1 through 7 Carlos Carrasco 8 286
1 through 7 Tyler Anderson 8 601
1 through 7 Jameson   Taillon 8 299
8 through 13 Max Fried 7 71
8 through 13 Logan Gilbert 7 153
8 through 13 Shane McClanahan 7 109
8 through 13 Framber Valdez 7 143
8 through 13 Kyle Wright 7 670
8 through 13 Adam Cimber 7 749

 

Welcome To Orlando!

Orlando Arcia, who is filling in for the injured Ozzie Albies, was the widest pickup in FAAB week 12. Arcia was added in 46 leagues (but is still a free agent in the 47th league).

In addition, 9 other players were picked up in 21 or more leagues (see below). Other wide pickups were C.J. Abrams – the youngster is getting recalled by the Padres; Josh WInckowski – Red Sox pitcher who draws a start against the Tigers; Aaron Civale – who seems ready to return for the Guardians; and Beau Brieske – has pitched well for the Tigers in his first few starts.

ADDED IN MOST MAIN EVENT LEAGUES Leagues Added Reason Highest Winning Bid Lowest Winning Bid
Orlando Arcia 46 Every Day PT for ATL 61 2
C.J.Abrams 39 Hitting well in minors 123 2
Josh Winckowski 31 Gets DET on Monday 19 1
Aaron Civale 27 Ready for activation 85 1
Beau Brieske 24 Throws 7 shutout 29 1
Dylan Moore 23 Base Stealing Option 46 1
Luis Patino 23 Close to activation? 40 3
Brad Hand 21 Part of PHI committee 125 5
Edward Olivares 21 On the road from Omaha 107 17
Leody Taveras 21 Back and starting 44 2

 

The Wow Bid of the Week

One of our highlighted features – the Main Event Wow Bid of the Week – goes to the largest bid of each FAAB period. This week that honor goes to a $361 bid for Detroit outfielder Riley Greene, which easily beat the runner-up bid of $253 (Greene was won in 12 leagues – 10 times above $200 – and the lowest winning bid for Greene was $147).

6/19: Riley Greene $361

6/12: Stephen Strasburg $227

6/5: Edward Cabrera $331

5/29 Ryan Helsley $312

5/22: Nolan Gorman $482 – #4 Wow Bid

5/15: George Kirby $557 – #2 Wow Bid

5/8: Brendan Rodgers $424

5/1: Eloy Jimenez $452

4/24: Jesse Winker $508 – #3 Wow Bid

4/17: Matt Manning $475 – #5 Wow Bid

4/10: Josh Lowe $613 – Highest Main Bid this Year

4/3: Matt Brash $244

 

The Century Club Has 11 Members This Week

There were 11 players that attracted SUCCESSFUL bids over $100 during this FAAB run (down from 15 last week), and just 2 of those players had at least one winning bid over $200 (up from 1 last week – see chart below). The only players attracting multiple bids over $100 were the previously mentioned Riley Greene (12), Kendall Graveman (9) and Brad Hand (3). There were 32 successful bids over $100 (up from 21) and 11 successful bids over $200 (up from 1):

TEAM BIDS OVER $100 – MAIN EVENT Winning Bids over $100 Winning Bids over $200 Highest Winning Bid (FAAB $)
DET Riley Greene 12 10 361
BAL Jorge Mateo 1 1 211
CHW Kendall Graveman 9 0 182
STL Brendan Donovan 1 0 134
PHI Brad Hand 3 0 125
SD C.J.Abrams 1 0 123
STL Giovanny Gallegos 1 0 119
TB Colin Poche 1 0 115
MIN Jhoan Duran 1 0 111
KC Edward Olivares 1 0 107
MIA Avisail Garcia 1 0 107
32 11

 

Average Main Event Team FAAB Remaining: $354

For the 12 FAAB runs thus far, the average Main Event team has won 22.8 bids this season (still steady at 1.90 per week) and spent $645.73 per team. This dollar amount is just 0.4% lower than last year when $648.57 was spent per team in the same time frame. This means that in 2022, the average team has $354 of FAAB left, but it’s worthwhile to remember that approximately $57 per team went unspent last year as fantasy owners fell out of the running. Therefore, the active FAAB dollars left is much less than $354.

2022 TOTAL NUMBER OF MAIN EVENT WINNING BIDS TOTAL FAAB DOLLARS SPENT MAIN EVENT AVERAGE WINNING BID MAIN EVENT AVERAGE AMOUNTS SPENT PER ME TEAM
1 403 $7,962 $19.76 $11.29
2 1035 $36,124 $34.90 $51.24
3 1445 $46,026 $31.85 $65.29
4 1431 $44,112 $30.83 $62.57
5 1367 $37,945 $27.76 $53.82
6 1300 $50,280 $38.68 $71.32
7 1580 $58,965 $37.32 $83.64
8 1527 $46,398 $30.39 $65.81
9 1487 $36,434 $24.50 $51.68
10 1573 $33,085 $21.03 $46.93
11 1573 $29,778 $18.93 $42.24
12 1344 $28,132 $20.93 $39.90
TOTAL 16065 $455,241 $28.34 $645.73

 

Colosseum Stats: Four Players from Three Weeks Ago…Results: 2 Good Adds out of 4:

Again this season we’ll be keeping tabs on the 4 most added players from 3 weeks ago to see how some of the biggest free agent acquisitions have been doing for their fantasy owners. These are the players acquired in the most leagues on the 9th FAAB run this season – on 5/29 (stats are from 5/30 through 6/19):

  • Michael Harris: 24-for-72 .333 AVG; 3 HR; 2 SB – Harris has been really solid – he has provided power and added 13 runs scored and 13 RBI. Not much to quibble with here – this gladiator gets an easy WIN.
  • Oscar Gonzalez: 24-for-74 .324 AVG; 1 HR; 0 SB – Oscar waited until yesterday to connect for his first homer – after star fantasy baseball analyst Jeff Zimmerman pointed out that he had not hit one – but he’s been productive with 9 runs scored and 8 RBI since his call-up and has been a big help in batting average – another gladiator WIN here!
  • Victor Robles: 9-for-45 .200 AVG; 0 HR; 1 SB – Victor had a hot streak just before his big pickup week, but faded quickly and is losing playing time now – he is only owned in 22 Main Event leagues after yesterday’s FAAB run – LOSS.
  • Cole Sulser: 5.1 IP; 8.44 ERA; 1.69 WHIP; 6 K; 2 BB; 1 WINS; 0 SAVES – This didn’t work either – and in addition Sulser has been placed on the IL Wednesday. Sulser is only owned in three Main Event leagues after yesterday – LOSS.

 

2022 RECORD:

  • 13 thumbs up – 36% (full year 2021 24%)
  • 9 side thumbs – 25% (full year 2021 27%)
  • 14 thumbs down – 39% (full year 2021 49%)

The record of top adds in the Main Event is still ahead of 2021 through the first 12 FAAB periods. Main Event owners are consistently finding one good solid add per week thus far – in fact the record is one BETTER than one good add per week. Congratulations to us as a group!!!

Interesting Single Team Drops

I took a look at the Main Event transactions to look for any interesting players dropped this week. These are players dropped just once that I found somewhat surprising. It’s interesting that Anthony DeSclfani and Brad Hand were relatively big adds this week but were each dropped by one owner…

6/19: Oscar Gonzalez; Diego Castillo (SEA); Kolten Wong; Jose Miranda; Jesus Aguilar; Anthony DeSclafani; Tanner Rainey; Kyle Farmer; Brad Hand; Cal Quantrill

 

The Last Airbender

Overall Rank: Thru 6/19 Fantasy Owner Overall Points Points Behind
1 Mark Bendar 5990.0 0.0
2 Bob Catsiroumpas 5856.0 134.0
3 Kyle Brinkmann 5777.0 213.0
4 Bill Macey 5696.5 293.5
5 Douglas Gruber 5689.5 300.5
6 Robert Mirshak & Ian Kahn 5667.0 323.0
7 Ben Tidd 5631.0 359.0
8 Ned Donohue 5604.0 386.0
9 Charles Sommer 5542.0 448.0
10 Scott Jenstad 5508.0 482.0
11 Leonard Ringle 5486.0 504.0
12 Douglas Gruber 5471.0 519.0
13 Robert Cramutola 5468.5 521.5
14 Chris Fessler 5462.0 528.0
15 Craig Clarke 5439.5 550.5
16 Jason Santeiu 5437.5 552.5
17 Rob Silver 5433.5 556.5
18 John Pausma 5386.0 604.0
19 Matt Modica 5380.0 610.0
20 Robert Cramutola 5332.0 658.0
Average Top 20 Overall Score 5562.9

Congratulations to Mark Bendar for re-taking the Number One position – Mark says that he has finished filming his remake of “Bend It Like Beckham” with his pal David Beckham and is now working on an update of the 2010 classic film “The Last Airbender” after suggesting the project to M. Night Shyamalan. He’s apparently lunching at famous L.A> hotspots and has even hung out with Jack Nicholson (“he’s a cool guy,” Mark reports).

Congratulations also to Bob Catsiroumpas, Kyle Brinkmann, Bill Macey and Douglas Gruber who currently occupy the 2nd through 5th positions overall. Also Robert Mirshak and Ian Kahn – famous opera aficionados who explain they named their team “Nessun Dorma” after the famous aria – NOT because they often sing it in the shower – are in great shape in 6th place overall. Congratulations to all of these Top 20 owners – they have all earned our respect.

Philippe Dussault: Falls to 73rd from 38th

The world was shocked as Philippe Dussault – who had climbed from 60th to 38th place overall last week – tumbled back to the 73rd position. Even though he is back from his performance at the Queen’s Jubilee – he apparently has been doing other things besides focusing on his fantasy team. Reporters published this image of Philippe when he was SUPPOSED to be focusing on his fantasy teams last week – so you all can see there is a problem here…

Where are our 2022 Previous Overall Leaders?

Tim Lilly (4/11): Tim has moved up to 258th from 279th place, says that the 75-foot extension cord allowing him to work on his computer from his garden of lilies is working beautifully and he only has to worry about keeping his three-year-old daughter Lil out of the garden so that the flowers thrive.

Scott Fleming (4/18): Doing very well, Scott has moved up from 61st overall last week to 44th this week. Scott is about to move to Flemington, New Jersey even though it “has nothing to do with the town name,” but is waiting to meet with the Mayor of the town before giving movers the green light.

Chris Read (4/25-5/8): Chris had an impressive three-week run at the top, dropped to 63rd place three weeks ago – but then surged back to 47th then 42nd and now is 33rd this week. Chris is energized by his speaking tour in Reading, Pennsylvania – and his presentation to the Reading Chamber of Commerce is next week.

Tyler Jung (5/15): Tyler is in 21st place (down from 8th), which is still very good since he remains on his “Welcome to the Jungle” tour in deepest, darkest Africa. He WAS in the Munda Wanga Environmental Park, which has a wildlife sanctuary and botanical garden, however, it seems he may go to Maputo in Mozambique “for a little vacation.”
Leonard Ringle (5/22-29): Leonard hung out a shingle on the #1 overall position, but was forced to take it down. He dropped a little from 7th place to 16th, but has surged back to 11th and says he is not worried – in fact, he’s “working on a jingle” to sing when he gets back into 1st place overall.

Bob Catsiroumpas (6/13): Right on the heels of Mark Bendar in 2nd – Bob says he is in Montana working out with the Montana State Bobcats as he prepares for the season’s second half.

League of Legends

In addition, we’ll follow the individual league races this season. It is no small feat to win a league championship in the Main Event regardless of a fantasy owner’s overall place, and the top three in each league earn a cash prize and deserve recognition. You can see the 47 leagues listed in the chart below – along with the top three in the standings as of Monday morning.

NFBC League Number LEADER League Points 2nd PLACE League Points 3rd PLACE League Points
#934 Jason Anthony 109.5 Clark Olson 107.5 Doug Moe 104.0
#935 Mark Srebro 112.5 Anthony Botzo 105.5 Christopher Cooley 103.0
#943 Steven Weimer 119.0 Andrew Kopicz 108.5 Eno Sarris 99.0
#1026 Toby Guevin 111.5 John Pausma 107.5 Matthew Davis 102.5
#1027 Scott Jenstad 105.5 Tanner Bell 103.0 Justin Salinger 101.0
#1028 Jacob Halusker 110.5 Russel Wyatt 108.5 Ryan Atkins 97.0
#1029 Rusty Clark 103.5 Mark Nothan 101.0 Scott Waggener 93.5
#1030 Rob Silver 120.0 Zach Bettencourt 100.0 Jenny Butler 89.5
#1031 TIE: Daniel Prepas 104.5 TIE: Stephen Marshall 104.5 Scott Fleming 98.5
#1032 Mark Bendar 131.0 Tony DiVincenzo 110.0 Shawn Childs 95.0
#1034 Ned Donohue 126.0 Robert Cramutola 118.5 Stephen Jupinka 98.0
#1132 Eric Heberlig 107.5 Scott Masel 99.0 Jon Engstrom 95.5
#1143 James Anderson & Todd Whitestone 111.5 Michelle Smith 110.0 Mark Srebro 104.5
#1192 Robert Cramutola 122.0 Christopher Vaccaro 107.0 Steven Weimer 105.5
#1221 Eric Albright 110.5 Mike Duggan 105.5 Michael Crescenzi 105.0
#1226 Robert DiPietro 105.0 Patrick Longood 104.0 Michael Garcia 101.5
#1228 Charles Sommer 128.5 John Pausma 115.5 Mike Ballschmiede 101.0
#1233 Ned Donohue 115.0 Gregg Martin 109.0 Stephen Jupinka 105.5
#1236 Daniel Prepas 111.5 Clark Olson 99.0 TIE: Jon McHugh & Michael O’Brien 93.0
#1244 Douglas Gruber 125.5 Jordan Epping 109.5 Andrew Geller 95.0
#1260 Kelly Uganski 115.0 TIE: Jeff Erickson 104.0 TIE: Vince Clemente 104.0
#1263 Kyle Brinkmann 129.0 TIE: Eric Heberlig 108.0 TIE: Chris Uram 108.0
#1264 Bill Macey 125.5 Ryan Rufe 107.5 TIE: Vlad Sedler & Brian Edwards 107.0
#1265 Tyler Jung 118.0 Bob Mazur 106.0 Joe Morrison 101.5
#1287 Glenn Schroter 108.0 TIE: Aaron Lawson 103.0 TIE: James Gabal 103.0
#1292 Matt Modica 115.5 Steven Heffernan 109.5 Mike Rothe 107.5
#1294 Scott Waggener 119.0 Dohn Terrell 103.5 Toby Guevin 99.0
#1297 TIE: Zach Bettencourt 113.0 TIE: Richard Briskin 113.0 Kevin Kirves 103.5
#1304 Richard Dimondo 109.5 Patrick Raney 104.0 Philippe Dussault 98.0
#1306 David Miller 102.0 Dave Petroziello 99.0 Brian Slack 95.5
#1318 Douglas Gruber 123.0 Jody Ryan 104.5 JimJFerrari 91.5
#1319 Jeff Mitseff 111.5 Aaron German 101.5 Bob Casale 99.5
#1320 Robert Mirshak & Ian Kahn 122.0 Philippe Dussault 107.0 Daniel Baker 105.5
#1321 Chris Fessler 117.5 Mike Rothe 109.5 Aaron Jones 94.0
#1322 Ned Donohue 116.0 Jeff Mitseff 105.0 Kellen Arneson 102.5
#1331 Bob Catsiroumpas 125.0 Bradley Libros 112.0 Robert DiPietro 109.0
#1332 Ben Tidd 116.5 Chris Read 115.5 Leonard Ringle 115.0
#1363 Matthew McDonough 112.5 Scott Davis 104.5 Paul Hong 96.0
#1364 Al Williams 110.5 James Tomony 109.5 Stephen Jupinka 107.5
#1365 Scott Jenstad 119.0 Craig Clarke 117.5 Matt Hurley 105.0
#1366 Isaac Cockburn 117.0 Chris Boudreaux 108.5 Jeff Mitseff 96.5
#1371 Jason Santeiu 115.5 John Pausma 110.0 Brian Slack 109.5
#1402 John Lyons 106.0 Ray Butler 103.5 Abdulaziz Madani 102.0
#1405 Michael Lins 116.5 Zachary Waxman 116.0 Christopher Torres 99.5
#1408 Les Travis 100.0 Eric Heberlig 96.5 TIE: Chris Avey & Jody Ryan 96.0
#1511 Scott Fleming 109.0 Ian Hubbard 106.0 TIE: Beau Reid & Clark Olson 93.5
#1524 Mark Srebro 110.5 Jamie Ickes 108.0 Kareem Yostos 101.5
Average 1st Place Score 114.7 Average 2nd Place Score 106.9 Average 3rd Place Score 100.8

 

There are multiple NFBC players who are in the top three places in more than one Main Event league. Even at this early stage, that is impressive. Shout-outs:

  • Ned Donohue – three 1st and 8th overall – WOW
  • Avid standings watcher Mark Srebro – two 1st, one 3rd and 50th overall
  • The dominator Douglas Gruber – two 1st; and 5th AND 12th overall
  • Jeff Mitseff (two 1st one 2nd and one 3rd) and 62nd overall
  • Eric Heberlig – (one 1st and two 2nd and 64th overall)
  • Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer (and 2018 Main Event Champ) John Pausma – THREE 2nd and 18th overall
  • Podcaster for Rotowire and all-around smart guy Scott Jenstad (two 1st and 10th overall)
  • My podcast partner Robert DiPietro, one 1st and one 3rd and 39th overall
  • Crowd favorite Brian Slack with two 3rd and 34th overall
  • 2016 Main Event Champ Rob Silver – 1st in his league, 17th overall, and he and Jeff Zimmerman are really great guys
  • Clark Olson (two 2nd and one 3rd and 71st overall)
  • Scott Waggener (one 1st and one 3rd and 29th overall)
  • Daniel Prepas (two 1st)
  • Robert Cramutola ((one 1st and one 2nd) plus 13th AND 20th overall
  • Zach Bettencourt (one 1st and one 2nd)
  • Chris Fessler (one 1st and one 3rd)
  • Steve Weimer (one 1st and one 3rd)
  • Stephen Jupinka (THREE 3rd)
  • Matty Modica (one 1st and 19th overall)
  • Mike Rothe (one 2nd and one 3rd)
  • Toby Guevin (one 1st and one 3rd)
  • AND Philippe Dussault (one 2nd and one 3rd)

Great job by all!

Good luck to all fantasy baseball owners, and look for any signs of intelligent life anywhere this week!

Todd Whitestone

Todd Whitestone

Writer for SPstreamer.com focusing on the NFBC Main Event

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