Skip to main content

MLB SEASON COUNTER: 21.3%

Major League Baseball completed its first month of the season and through Sunday May 15th it has played about 21% of the season. The 705 NFBC Main Event owners are all constantly assessing their teams, and there is one roto category that still is the MOST DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON. However, luckily for them I suddenly realized that the rock group Devo may have figured this all out way back in 1980:

Now whip it

Into shape

Shape it up

Get straight

Go forward

Move ahead

Try to detect it

It’s not too late

To whip it

Whip it good

I sent a message to the official Devo historian to ask an important question: OK, you guys say it ‘s NOT too late. So what exactly is the time when it WOULD be too late to get a good WHIP? This seems important – we all want to address deficiencies in this category. The reply was short and to the point:

It’s not too late

To whip it

Whip it good

Hmmmm – maybe we should try to analyze this further on our own (even though this response was REALLY helpful)?

The MLB Environment: Lots of Zeros

Through Sunday 5/15, hitters have been scoring just 4.16 MLB runs per game, well below the 4.53 in 2021. However, the runs per game have improved from the 4.08 average one week ago. Perhaps the warmer weather is helping (or someone has adjusted the thermostat in the humidors?). This has been built by two main factors (see chart below):

  • Batting average is at .234 (moving up from the .232 last week – but still well down from .244 last year).
  • Home runs were at 0.89 per game three weeks ago but are now 0.95 (from 1.22 in 2021).
MLB HITTING STATS RUNS/GAME HOME RUNS BATTING AVERAGE
2022 YTD 4.16 0.95 0.234
2021 4.53 1.22 0.244
2020 4.65 1.28 0.245
2019 4.83 1.39 0.252
2018 4.65 1.15 0.248
2017 4.65 1.26 0.255

As we’ve stated previously, MLB strikeouts have been down and fell still further – from 8.42 to 8.37 per game, and walks are also declining. This has fueled a fairly sizeable drop in MLB WHIP to 1.24 (the lowest MLBL WHIP since 1968 when baseball responded by lowering the height of the pitcher’s mound). The silver lining for offense is that with walks and strikeouts down, at least the ball is being put in play a bit more.

MLB PITCHING STATS MLB WHIP STRIKEOUTS RECORDED WALKS ALLOWED K:BB RATIO
2022 YTD 1.24 8.37 3.21 2.61
2021 1.30 8.68 3.25 2.67
2020 1.33 8.68 3.39 2.56
2019 1.33 8.81 3.27 2.69
2018 1.30 8.48 3.32 2.55
2017 1.34 8.25 3.26 2.53

WHIP: 80% Target 2022 = 1.118

No matter how valuable the advice is from rock group and fantasy experts Devo on the WHIP category, there HAS been less scoring as you see in the chart above. So it would make sense that the 80% WHIP target to hit in the Main Event is significantly more difficult to achieve than in 2021. In the 2019 Main Event, fantasy owners needed a WHIP of 1.202 to get 80% of the overall points available in this category. In 2021 (skipping 2020 because of the shortened season), that number IMPROVED to 1.165 (about 3.1% better). Thus far in 2022, a Main Event team would need a WHIP of 1.118 to get 80% of the points available. So assuming that is the target for the full season, the Main Event WHIP target is 4.0% lower than 2021 (and 7.0% lower than 2019).

MLB WHIP LEADERS (MIN. 30 IP)

But who are the pitchers that are providing the most help in WHIP even in this reduced environment? In the chart below you can see – through Saturday 5/14 – the 20 pitchers most allergic to allowing hits and walks. Justin Verlander and Zac Gallen are the 6-week leaders in this category – significantly ahead of the pack with an impressive 0.64 and 0.65 respectively. Verlander had a Main Event ADP in the top 100, but Gallen was available past 150 in most leagues. However, the biggest bargains on this list were Reid Detmers (388), Drew Rasmussen (280), Paul Blackburn (largely undrafted), Miles Mikolas (484), Eric Lauer (326), and Nestor Cortes (341). Additional pitchers that were available after pick 100 were Clayton Kershaw (156 but currently on the IL), Pablo Lopez (141), Carlos Rodon before last night’s outing (112), Shane McClanahan (112), and Luis Garcia (143). In fact, only 8 of the top 20 WHIP leaders as of May 14th were drafted in the top 100.

WHIP RANK MIN 30 IP THRU 5/14 PITCHER IP WHIP MAIN EVENT ADP
1 Justin Verlander 40.2 0.64 92
2 Zac Gallen 34.1 0.65 157
3 Clayton Kershaw IL 30.0 0.73 156
4 Corbin Burnes 45.2 0.80 11
5 Pablo Lopez 43.0 0.80 141
6 Reid Detmers 31.0 0.84 388
7 Max Scherzer 44.0 0.89 20
8 Alek Manoah 36.0 0.89 94
9 Drew Rasmussen 33.2 0.89 280
10 Joe Musgrove 39.0 0.90 73
11 Paul Blackburn 37.2 0.90 751
12 Carlos Rodon 35.0 0.91 112
13 Shane McClanahan 39.1 0.92 109
14 Luis Garcia 33.2 0.92 143
15 Miles Mikolas 42.1 0.94 484
16 Max Fried 43.0 0.95 71
17 Eric Lauer 34.2 0.95 326
18 Shohei Ohtani 34.1 0.96 8
19 Nestor Cortes 32.0 0.97 341
20 Kevin Gausman 45.0 0.98 71

Kirby in Dream Land

As everyone knows (some people know?), Kirby is an extraterrestrial hero and protects his home of Dream Land on the Planet Popstar from many villains. Solely because of Kirby’s success in these endeavors, Main Event owners decided that GEORGE Kirby was the biggest prize In the sixth FAAB period held on Sunday May 15th. The good news for Main Event owners is that I’ve discovered in doing THOROUGH RESEARCH (i.e. looking on the internet) that Kirby is apparently is not just a pitcher but also has the ability to inhale and spit out or swallow his enemies. Cool, right? Although Kirby was the leader (added in 46 of 47 leagues because he was already owned in one league), ten players were picked up in 25 or more leagues (see below). Other wide pickups were Alek Thomas, Chase Silseth, and Rowan Wick.

Also picked up widely and attracting a winning bid over $100 was Jeffrey Springs – who has been ramping up his innings in Tampa Bay and just might successfully convert to a starting pitcher.

ADDED IN MOST MAIN EVENT LEAGUES Leagues Added Reason Highest Winning Bid Lowest Winning Bid
George Kirby 46 Next big thing in SEA? 557 236
Alek Thomas 43 Power hitter in AZ 427 103
Chase Silseth 43 New SP in LAA 84 11
Rowan Wick 40 Closing for CHC? 89 5
Jeffrey Springs 35 Converting to SP 102 8
Brendan Donovan 35 Getting PT in STL 62 3
Evan Longoria 31 Back from IL 83 7
William Contreras 31 Good hitting C!! 71 1
Felix Bautista 28 Closing for BAL? 73 1
Eli White 25 Regular PT for TEX 70 1

 The Wow Bid of the Week

One of our favorite features – the Main Event Wow Bid of the Week – is back and goes to the largest bid of each FAAB period. This week that honor goes to a $557 bid for Mariners pitcher George Kirby, which easily beat the runner-up bid of $427 (Kirby was also won with 3 bids over $500 and 5 more over $400).

The Century Club Has 21 Members This Week

There were 21 players that attracted SUCCESSFUL bids over $100 during this FAAB run (down from 34 last week), and just 5 of those players had at least one winning bid over $200 instead of the 11 that did so last week – (see chart below). Players attracting the most bids over $100 were the previously mentioned Kirby (46), Thomas (43), Hunter Greene (6) and Kyle Bradish (6). There were 125 successful bids over $100 (down from 137) and 66 successful bids over $200 (up from 29 as Kirby and Thomas led the way – see chart below):

TEAM BIDS OVER $100 – MAIN EVENT Winning Bids over $100 Winning Bids over $200 Highest Winning Bid (FAAB $)
SEA George Kirby 46 46 557
AZ Alek Thomas 43 16 427
CIN Joey Votto 2 2 279
DET Jonathan Schoop 1 1 251
OAK Dany Jimenez 2 1 234
LAA Reid Detmers 2 0 188
MIN Royce Lewis 2 0 180
CIN Hunter Greene 6 0 179
NYY Joey Gallo 1 0 173
STL Steven Matz 1 0 157
BOS Rich Hill 1 0 141
BAL Kyle Bradish 6 0 141
MIA Anthony Bender 2 0 141
SD Luke Voit 1 0 128
SD Wil Myers 3 0 127
BOS Chris Sale 1 0 121
NYY Clay Holmes 1 0 117
TB Brooks Raley 1 0 105
CHC Kyle Hendricks 1 0 103
SEA Paul Sewald 1 0 103
TB Jeffrey Springs 1 0 102
125 66

For the 5 FAAB runs thus far, the average Main Event team has won 12.1 bids this season (1.73 per week) and spent $399.17 per team. This dollar amount is just 7.5% lower than last year when $431.49 was spent per team in the first 7 FAAB runs (it WAS trailing last year by 18% before this week). This means that in 2022, the average team still has $601 of FAAB left, so there are still resources available, but they are dwindling a bit. I expect a significant drop-off in spending over the next two weeks.

2022 TOTAL NUMBER OF MAIN EVENT WINNING BIDS TOTAL FAAB DOLLARS SPENT MAIN EVENT AVERAGE WINNING BID MAIN EVENT AVERAGE AMOUNTS SPENT PER ME TEAM
1 403 $7,962 $19.76 $11.29
2 1035 $36,124 $34.90 $51.24
3 1445 $46,026 $31.85 $65.29
4 1431 $44,112 $30.83 $62.57
5 1367 $37,945 $27.76 $53.82
6 1300 $50,280 $38.68 $71.32
7 1580 $58,965 $37.32 $83.64
TOTAL 8561 $281,414 $32.87 $399.17

FAAB Analysis Suggestion for NFBC Owners

If you’re interested in how you are doing in terms of FAAB, here is a suggestion for you. Go to the league page in question and review all the FAAB remaining amounts for each owner in the league (I suggest including yours). For example, in one of my joint Main Events (before this Sunday’s FAAB run) the total remaining was $9888 (out of $15,000) or $659 per team. Then examine your FAAB remaining total (in this case for me it was $751). This means that in that one league before the FAAB we had $92 above the average. This may be more relevant for you than looking at the overall Main Event average remaining amounts – if your league is full of big spenders, perhaps it is easier to compete with a lower amount. If your league is very frugal, then you may at least want to know that so you can figure out how and when to spend. You also can see if some teams are relatively inactive in FAAB (therefore throwing off the analysis a little) and if one or two teams are almost out of money (leaving the rest of the teams with high totals).

Colosseum Stats: Four Players from Three Weeks Ago…Results: 2 Good Adds out of 4:

Again this season we’ll be keeping tabs on the 4 most added players from 3 weeks ago to see how some of the biggest free-agent acquisitions have been doing for their fantasy owners. These are the players acquired in the most leagues on the third FAAB run this season – on 4/17 (stats are from 4/25 through 5/15):

  • Dany Jimenez: 6.2 IP; 6:3 K-BB; 0 WINS; 1.35 ERA; 1.05 WHIP; 3 SAVES – the three saves have been pure gold for owners that added Jimenez on April 24 – and the other stats have been good. With the prospect that he is still in the closer mix, I count this as a WIN.
  • Kendall Graveman: 9.0 IP; 10:1 K-BB; 0 WINS; 2 SAVES; 1.00 ERA; 1.00 WHIP – not as clear cut as Jimenez in my mind, but Graveman has definitely established himself as the next in line behind Liam Hendriks. He’s not easy to start for those owners looking for saves though, so I rate this as a PUSH.
  • Daniel Vogelbach: 12-for-55 .218 AVG; 3 HR; 0 SB – his batting average is not overly impressive, but he does have 5 runs scored and 8 RBIs. I think he’s done what his owners have asked him to do – and he’s hitting high in the lineup and providing power. I think Vogelbach earns a WIN as a 15-team pickup.
  • Glenn Otto: 13.1 IP; 11:9 K-BB; 0 WINS; 8.10 ERA; 1.73 WHIP. Nope – this one just hasn’t worked. Otto has had a rough set of matchups, but even in that context, he has not delivered the results needed. This gladiator goes down to defeat.

2022 RECORD:

  • 7 thumbs up – 44% (full year 2021 24%)
  • 4 side thumbs – 25% (full year 2021 27%)
  • 5 thumbs down – 31% (full year 2021 49%)

It’s still early yet, but it’s the record looks very good thus far! Will this continue? Look in with me on our gladiators again next week to find out!

In addition, we’ll be following the Main Event chase all season in this space, and showing the overall leader board as it shifts throughout the season. First, here are the top 20 in the overall standings after the morning of May 16th.

Overall Rank: Thru 4/17 Fantasy Owner Overall Points Points Behind
1 Tyler Jung 5713.0 0.0
2 Leonard Ringle 5692.0 21.0
3 Douglas Gruber 5638.5 74.5
4 Chris Read 5596.5 116.5
5 Douglas Gruber 5561.5 151.5
6 Ned Donohue 5501.5 211.5
7 Jason Santeiu 5494.0 219.0
8 Craig Clarke 5492.5 220.5
9 Doug Moe 5427.5 285.5
10 Mark Bendar 5418.5 294.5
11 Scott Waggener 5406.5 306.5
12 Anthony Botzo 5361.0 352.0
13 Bob Catsiroumpas 5340.0 373.0
14 Philippe Dussault 5316.0 397.0
15 Dustin Wagner 5315.5 397.5
16 Eric Heberlig 5271.5 441.5
17 Chris Fessler 5217.0 496.0
18 Robert Mirshak 5211.0 502.0
19 Matthew McDonough 5143.5 569.5
20 Zach Bettencourt 5137.5 575.5
Average Top 20 Overall Score 5412.8

Welcome to the Jungle

Congratulations to Tyler Jung for taking over the Number One position after Chris Read held it for three consecutive weeks! Tyler has 4 Main Event entries, and this one may be all he needs! Tyler started out with 10 fine picks in his Main (see below), taking one big ace from the #2 slot (Corbin Burnes) and adding on some speed (Marte), power (O’Neill and Altuve), saves (Romano and Knebel) and an elite catcher (Contreras). Congratulations also to Leonard Ringle, Douglas Gruber (who has 3rd and 5th – wow), and Chris Read who are all in the top five in the early season. All of these Top 20 owners are in outstanding shape.

TwelveSocks: Top Ten Picks

Burnes, Corbin

Machado, Manny

Marte, Starling

O’Neill, Tyler

Romano, Jordan

Knebel, Corey

Altuve, Jose

Contreras, Willson

Cronenworth, Jake

Skubal, Tarik

Philippe Dussault: Inquiry Dismissed but Warnings Issued

Breaking news – Philippe Dussault is in 14th place overall but was been forced to respond to a steward’s inquiry after an unnamed owner claimed Dussault impeded the other owners at his draft table in Las Vegas. Greg Ambrosius, Tom Kessenich, and Darik Buchar apparently reviewed the tapes of Dussault’s Las Vegas draft and found that although there was contact with another owner, Dussault did not show any intent despite the fact that the other owner was hit in the head. However, because of Phil’s actions, the NFBC has decided to follow the lead of Major League Baseball and issue warnings to EVERYONE at that draft. Apparently, they feel that it is only fair to warn everyone no matter who started this situation.

Where are our 2022 Previous Overall Leaders?

Tim Lilly (4/11): Tim is in 31st place, which is still good, and says that he is starting a garden consisting only of lilies. For some reason – he won’t say why – he considers lilies the most beautiful of all flowers and says every Main Event owner should buy some.

Scott Fleming (4/18): Still doing well at 65th overall, Scott is angry because he has been deported from Flanders (the Dutch-speaking northern portion of Belgium) for claiming that he is King of the Flemish. Apparently, this was not well received by Willem-Alexander (the actual King of the Netherlands) and this got him escorted out of the country.

Chris Read (4/25-5/8): Chris had an impressive three-week run at the top, and is confident that even though he has dropped to 4th place, he will be back in front very soon. Because of this, he has coordinated the new Chris Read Library (Where Reading is Fun!). Located in Reading, Pennsylvania, he plans to have a vintage Monopoly set in a display case in the front hall with the Reading Railroad highlighted.

League of Legends

In addition, we’ll follow the individual league races this season. It is no small feat to win a league championship in the Main Event regardless of a fantasy owner’s overall place, and the top three in each league earn a cash prize and deserve recognition. You can see the 47 leagues listed in the chart below – along with the top three in the standings as of Monday morning.

NFBC League Number LEADER League Points 2nd PLACE League Points 3rd PLACE League Points
#934 Doug Moe 119.5 Jason Anthony 110.0 John Pausma 99.0
#935 Anthony Botzo 120.0 Mark Srebro 113.0 Scott Waggener 102.5
#943 Andrew Kopicz 106.5 Alan Mitchell 92.0 Douglas Gruber 91.5
#1026 John Pausma 112.0 Toby Guevin 97.5 Chris Hill 97.0
#1027 Michael Govier 106.5 Scott Jenstad 104.5 Tanner Bell 97.0
#1028 Jacob Halusker 112.5 Zachary Waxman 98.0 Nick Cassavetes 92.0
#1029 Mark Northan 107.5 Matt Modica 96.0 James Maples 95.5
#1030 Rob Silver 111.5 Rick Davis 101.0 Zach Bettencourt 99.0
#1031 Dustin Wagner 118.0 Tim Lilly 112.5 Daniel Prepas 103.5
#1032 Mark Bendar 116.5 Keith Tonsager 98.0 Ronny Mor 88.0
#1034 Ned Donohue 120.0 Robert Cramutola 116.5 Ken O’Brien 103.0
#1132 Eric Heberlig 123.5 Roland Pinto 105.0 Danny Bronski 102.0
#1143 Mark Srebro 109.0 James Anderson & Todd Whitestone 107.5 Greg Lathrop 104.5
#1192 Robert Cramutola 112.5 Christopher Vaccaro 105.0 Eric Heberlig 99.5
#1221 TIE: Mike Duggan 110.0 TIE: Marc Fleisher 110.0 Eric Albright 98.5
#1226 Michael Garcia 102.0 Ken Magner 98.0 Patrick Longood 97.5
#1228 Charles Sommer 109.5 John Pausma 107.0 Jordan Epping 103.0
#1233 Joe Anthony 105.0 Stephen Jupinka 94.5 Gregg Martin 92.5
#1236 Clark Olson 110.5 Russell Withers 105.0 Daniel Prepas 101.5
#1244 Douglas Gruber 119.0 Scott Zeidman 96.5 Jordan Epping 91.0
#1260 Jeff Erickson 110.5 Jason Aberli 107.0 Kelly Uganski 105.5
#1263 Kyle Brinkmann 107.0 Eric Heberlig 104.0 Stephen Jupinka 100.0
#1264 Vlad Sedler 111.5 Ryan Rufe 108.0 Brian Edwards 106.0
#1265 Tyler Jung 125.0 Joe Morrison 108.5 Bob Mazur 103.0
#1287 Aaron Lawson 116.0 Jason Perkins 106.0 Eric Heberlig 100.0
#1292 Steve Gregovich 113.0 Chris Fessler 106.5 Steven Heffernan 102.0
#1294 Chris Oliver 99.5 Dominic Rello 98.5 Stephen Fiore 96.5
#1297 Zach Bettencourt 112.0 Richard Briskin 106.0 Douglas Gruber 101.0
#1304 Jeff Campbell 103.5 David Redgrave 97.5 Herb Eroh 94.5
#1306 Jeff Mitseff 108.5 Aaron Seefeldt 100.0 Brian Slack 94.5
#1318 Douglas Gruber 121.0 JimJ Ferrari 103.0 Alan Mitchell 99.5
#1319 Leonard Ringle 102.5 TIE: Jeff Mitseff 91.5 TIE: Steven Schweitzer 91.5
#1320 Philippe Dussault 116.0 Robert Mirshak 110.5 Richard Dimondo 97.5
#1321 Chris Fessler 110.5 Andrew Sullivan 103.0 Bradley Beckman 102.5
#1322 Jeff Mitseff 112.0 Kellen Arneson 109.5 Ned Donohue 100.0
#1331 Bradley Libros 112.0 Bob Catsiroumpas 111.0 Robert DiPietro 103.5
#1332 Chris Read 122.0 Leonard Ringle 120.5 Ben Tidd 108.5
#1363 Matthew McDonough 111.5 Paul Hong 108.5 Brian Magnani 105.0
#1364 Al Williams 101.5 Brian Slack 99.5 TIE: James Tomony & Marc Winokur 96.5
#1365 Craig Clarke 122.5 Scott Waggener 116.5 Lane McVey 108.0
#1366 Isaac Cockburn 110.0 David Bone 97.0 Jeff Mitseff 94.5
#1371 Jason Santeiu 114.5 John Pausma 107.5 P McD 106.5
#1402 Abdulaziz Madani 111.0 Ray Butler 110.5 Shawn Childs 96.5
#1405 Zachary Waxman 111.0 Michael Secor 100.0 Eric Heberlig 96.5
#1408 Eric Heberlig 108.5 Les Travis 102.0 Christopher Vaccaro 94.0
#1511 Ian Hubbard 104.0 Mike Ballschmiede 102.5 Scott Fleming 101.0
#1524 Mark Srebro 111.5 Kareem Yostos 97.5 Jason Santeiu 92.5
Average 1st Place Score 111.9 Average 2nd Place Score 104.3 Average 3rd Place Score 99.0

There are multiple NFBC players who are in the top three places in more than one Main Event league. Even at this early stage, that is impressive. Shout-outs:

  • Scott Waggener (one 2nd and one 3rd) – and 11th overall
  • Leonard Ringle (one 1st and one 2nd) – and 2nd overall
  • Jeff Mitseff (two 1st one 2nd and one 3rd) – and 30th overall
  • My podcast partner Robert DiPietro, 3rd in his league and in the hearts and minds of his listeners, and 53rd overall
  • Crowd favorite Brian Slack with a 2nd and 3rd place
  • Rotowire Closer Expert Ryan Rufe 2nd in his league and 61st overall
  • Basketball coaching legend Doug Moe (9th overall)
  • Fantasy Baseball/Football expert Mark Srebro – two 1st, one 2nd and 25th overall
  • Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer (and 2018 Main Event Champ) John Pausma – a 1st, two 2nd, and a 3rd
  • 2016 Main Event Champ Rob Silver – 1st in his league, 40th overall, and as he told me – the KEY member of the Launch Angle podcast…
  • Eric Heberlig – two 1st one 2nd and three 3rd
  • Baseball writer and podcaster Vlad Sedler (1st in his league and 34th overall)
  • 2019 Main Event Champ Abdulaziz Madani (one 1st and 41st overall)
  • Dustin Wagner – 15th overall

Great job by all!

Good luck to all fantasy baseball owners, and PLEASE REMEMBER to whip it, whip it good!

Todd Whitestone

Todd Whitestone

Writer for SPstreamer.com focusing on the NFBC Main Event

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: